When you think of a bear, what comes to mind? Possibly the California state flag, wild bears in Yellowstone, cute bear cubs following their mom, maybe Leonardo DiCaprio being torn apart by one in the Revenant. Now, one bear that some of you may have thought of based on the title of this article is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, the Russian bear. Putin has held either the position of President or Prime Minister of Russia since 1999. This former KGB officer was elected President again in 2012 and currently is in the middle of his 6-year term.
Frequently we may hear Americans making jokes about Putin and Russia in general. This is understandable based on our historical past; how many movies still use Russian mobsters as the archetype of a villain? However, Putin is no joke or irrelevant danger to make light of. His expansionist tendencies have become more and more impossible to ignore. Putin is trying to once again make Russia a world power to be feared, and a global actor that has influence in all corners of the world. To achieve his expansionist ideals, Putin has been making Russian society increasingly comparable to that of the communist era.
Expansionist Agenda & Russia’s Global Reach
In 2014, the world watched as, for the first time since the USSR fell, Russia annexed a territory to which they did not have a legitimate claim, specifically Crimea. Historically this region has had a large Russian population and Putin used this excuse, painting himself as a liberator, to take back the Crimean Peninsula. No matter what explanation Putin used to justify Russia’s action it is very clear that it was an expansionist act. By claiming this territory, Russia gained direct access to the Black Sea, thus making it easier to export their oil and making trade routes more efficient.
While the U.S. led sanctions against Russia for this action, Russia remained relatively unconcerned and soon many European countries reversed their sanctions due to their dependency on Russia’s natural resources for energy. In fact despite the hit Russian oil has taken recently Russia is building at $3.13 billion dollar bridge that will connect Crimea to Russia. Ever since Putin annexed Crimea, he has been more popular than ever with the Russian public, his approval rating is now more than 95%. In the U.S. there was never a president who came close to that type of approval rating (granted Putin may have skewed this polling).
This move to annex Crimea was a very strategic move by Putin. First, it has brought about a new wave of Russian pride and nationalism. Second, it added to the image of Putin as the traditional strong leader that Russians respect and the world fears. This new wave of Russian nationalism has enabled Putin to take actions to increase Russia’s other programs and policies that support his goal of bringing Russia into the international realm as a state that is formidable.
Even after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has remained involved in international affairs, but more recently they have been less content to let other countries take the lead regarding international issues. Russia holds a position on the UN Security Council and recently has been asserting its power in regard to Syria. The United States has been taking the lead in Iraq to try to defeat ISIS while Russia has been the main power fighting ISIS in Syria. The U.S. and other western nations have been very critical of Russia and Syria’s use of indiscriminate bombing of Aleppo. Russia is willing to hear the U.S. out but there is no sign that they will bend on their agenda. Russia is friends with the Assad regime in Syria and is putting their national interest first.
Putin and his foreign minister are very good at using the threat of ISIS to their advantage. Once the USSR fell, Russia lost a lot of its power due the decrease in their geographical control and everything that came with it, e.g., natural resources. Since then, Russia has been trying to expand their network again. Putin has found another area where he can further Russia’s interests, central Asia.
In Central Asia and the “stans,” Russia has used ISIS and the threats posed by it to build up their military presence in the region. Russia already has a standing military base in southern Tajikistan, near the Afghan border: 6,000 troops strong with the plan to add 3,000 more by 2020. Russian has persuaded four soviet countries in the region to partner with them in joint military exercises by arguing their participation is necessary for the successful defeat of ISIS -- despite the fact that Central Asia has one of the lowest recruitment rates historically.
Putin has been in power too long to truly be considered the leader of a democratic state. Unfortunately, countries like Tajikistan and Turkmenistan never truly became democracies or recovered economically after the USSR fell. Both are in the most realistic sense authoritarian states that have leaders that may very well lead until they die.
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon just lowered the presidential age requirement to 30 years old, most likely planning for his son to take power after he no longer wants to be ruler, or dies. These autocratic governments of the former Soviet Eastern Block are much more likely to join Putin in his military exercises and form closer relationships. Putin has been working on re-establishing the same network that his predecessors held when the USSR was at full strength. In fact, in 2015 the Eurasian Economic Union(EEU) was established. This new organization included Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia with the intention of bringing the countries closer. There was even talk of eventually having a common currency; Russia’s attempt to immolate the EU or create a Russian dominated Eurasian block. As if this economic agreement wasn’t enough to tie the countries together, Putin is also demanding that the EEU members must join Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that ensures mutual defense responsibilities which is dangerously reminiscent of the Warsaw Pact.
Meanwhile, the Russian - Georgian conflict has been happening since the 1990s and continues to this day. In 2008 the conflict came to a head when Georgia tried to retake South Ossetia after having multiple encounters with Russian-backed rebels. Russia did not like this so the conflict continued and has continued to periodically gain momentum and quiet. Later this fall there will be elections in Georgia that could create some dramatic change regarding the conflict. Which could possibly lead to the U.S. becoming involved.
When I recently traveled to the Czech Republic, a former Soviet territory, there was a running joke: “Where is the Russian border? Wherever Putin wants it!” Funny, but also sadly true that a country like the Czech Republic, powerless compared to an expansionist Russia, hasn’t much option other than figuratively throwing their hands in the air and watching it happen. . It is also a joke of which the United States needs to take note because it points out clearly that Putin is leading Russia towards a future that is more like its past.
Putin’s Influence Domestically
KGB’s New Face
Vladimir Putin broke into Russian politics due to his outstanding performance as a KGB officer so it’s no surprise that he is bringing back the KGB in everything but name. He is planning to combine Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service with the Federal Security Service to create a more formidable institution called the Ministry of State Security. This is the same institution that existed under Stalin’s infamous rule. The fact that Putin is now revamping the security and intelligence segment of the Russian government is indicative of the changes for which he is preparing. The U.S. should view this with just as much concern as one would if a hostile country was suddenly building up their military. Intelligence is a powerful currency when you have an opponent that has closely guarded secrets, as the U.S. government is sure to have. All you need to do is look at the impact of the DNC’s email leak due to Russian hackers, to see how vulnerable an adversary becomes when private information becomes public knowledge.
Who is Putin’s Competition again?
As stated earlier, Putin has been in power for a while now, and there is no talk of him leaving. There have been an increasing number of Putin critics and adversaries within Russia that have either disappeared or ended up dead.. The most recent case was Boris Nemtsov, who was shot and killed in February of 2015. Nemtsov was outspoken against Putin’s policies and criticized him for making Russia an authoritarian state again. He was shot near the Kremlin 2 days before he was supposed to lead an opposition rally. Putin and the government can claim it was “enemies of the state” all they want, but it's widely suspected that Putin and his secret service organized the hit.
This demonstrates another aspect of an authoritarian regime; suppression of the opposition. Russia’s history with leaders has been volatile to say the least and since Putin has become more power hungry. He has even extended the term of the presidency from 4 years to 6 years before entering his most recent term. Under Putin’s rule power has also become less spread out between different governmental positions and more consolidated under the presidential seat.
Media Control
Putin has created a massive propaganda machine that controls what the Russian public hears, and also attempts to influence foreign elections that Russian elites consider important. Basically, inside Russia the only news you can hear is pro-Putin and all the great things that the leader is doing for the country. Putin’s propaganda machine is largely responsible for the huge growth in nationalism that Russia has seen in recent years. Some experts are saying that this propaganda and shut down of media outlets that hold opposing views is even more effective than the propaganda that the Nazis used. This is partly due to the expansion of social media and the internet in general. Putin has greatly benefited from this by being able to spread images of himself looking tough and masculine, things that appeal to the majority of the Russian population.
Putin has also started targeting children as one of the main recipients of his propaganda, building his future base of support. Vladimir Putin actually created a pro-Putin youth organization called “Marching Together”. He has also started limiting internet activity, all in the name of protecting children and keeping terrorists out. At this point it should be no surprise that Putin also keeps out criticism regarding Russia’s action and especially criticism of Putin himself. The Russian government even will prosecute nationals that take part in criticizing Russia online. This type of persecution and limiting of freedoms are all some of the key indicators of authoritarian states looking to control their own people and expand their power.
Russia’s media reach is not only domestic. Russia has begun to use media as a weapon, utilizing a type of cyber-warfare. While Trump may blather about how the Democratic National Committee(DNC) does not actually know whether or not the Russians were behind the hack and email leak, there actually is significant evidence they were. Putin has endorsed Donald Trump in his run for the presidency. This combined with the sabotage of the Democratic party is a perfect illustration of how Putin and his new media intervention is being used to skew the politics of other countries to suit his needs. Putin would much prefer Trump to be president of the U.S. because it would be a disaster politically for the United States, thus most likely propping open the door for Russia to step into position of the most influential world power.
The Russians also tried to sabotage Germany’s Angela Merkel when she ran for re-election. The incident that became known as the “Lisa Affair” was a story fabricated by Putin’s propaganda machine that an ethnically Russian 13-year-old girl was gang raped by three immigrants in Germany. This horrid story created a mass movement of Russians to the streets protesting the open-door policy that German Chancellor Angela Merkel held and resulted in Merkel’s party losing some seats in Parliament. Although German officials found the story was completely untrue, it had the effect the Russians had hoped for. It drove a wedge into the EU at a complicated time (this was right before Brexit was voted on).
Why the U.S. Needs to Sit Up and Pay Attention
For most of us alive today, we remember a world where Russia and the United States have been adversaries. The relationship has gone through warming and cooling periods; one of the coldest was obviously the period designated as the Cold War. After the Cold War ended in 1991 Russia had recover politically, economically, and culturally after the fall of the Soviet Union; its attention could not be given to aspects of world power. But Russia is no longer the wounded bear it was at the end of the Cold War. Over the past 16 years, Vladimir Putin has taken it upon himself to rebuild Russia to become the most formidable actor on the world stage.
With all the current hysteria about ISIS, it is easy to not consider other states and leaders as an important enemy to attend to. The United States is always aware of Russia due to our history but there needs to be a more proactive consideration of the actions Russia is taking. The world is so interconnected today that even a small action taken by Putin regarding a border dispute in Georgia could land the U.S. and Russia on hostile terms again. With regards to Russia the U. S. would do better to act in a preventative rather than reactionary manner. I’m not saying I know what would be the best way to deal with Putin, but without a doubt unless something dramatic happens Putin will continue his expansionist strategies and eventually this will seriously conflict with U.S. interests. Then we will truly have an problem of global significance.
As a leader for his country Vladimir Putin has truly done some amazing things to advance Russian interests. Yet, outside of Russia Putin’s name is not only far from celebrated, it is feared. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens in a couple of years when Putin’s current term as President comes to an end. Will there be a transfer of power, or will Putin continue his authoritative reign?
References
http://theglobalstate.com/main-current-events/putins-new-authoritarian-russia/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-20/from-rape-claim-to-brexit-putin-machine-tears-at-europe-s-seams
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/03/europe/russia-putin-critics/
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/21/putin-has-finally-reincarnated-the-kgb-mgb-fsb-russia/
http://www.cfr.org/georgia/renewed-confrontation-georgia/p37662
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/country_profiles/1102575.stm
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/georgia-border-russia-vladimir-putin-213787
http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-10-04/meet-central-asias-leaders-life
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/putin-using-fear-of-isis-to-enhance-russian-influence-in-central-asia/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-15/no-syria-breakthrough-reached-by-u-s-russia-and-mideast-powers
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-crimea-idUSKCN0WK2EA
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/09/europe/crimea-war-games-pleitgen/
http://www.biography.com/people/vladimir-putin-9448807#president-of-russia-1st-and-2nd-terms
